Foreign Office Advised Regarding Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office advised against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Reveal Considerations on Addressing a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Following Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the files were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The diplomatic assessment rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.